The Trust Layer for Market Analysts

The analysis outlines three potential scenarios for Bitcoin's movement in the upcoming 2026-2029 cycle. The first scenario, a 'crypto winter', predicts a crash below the 50-week moving average to lower lows, similar to the 2022 downturn. The second, preferred scenario, is based on monetary policy, anticipating a relief rally towards $100,000 before a shock event triggers a crash to lower lows, specifically targeting a buy-in zone below $70,000. The third, 'super cycle' scenario, suggests breaking the four-year trend and setting new all-time highs without a significant dip. The current Bitcoin price is identified around $95,063, with immediate resistance at $100,000. The analyst's personal strategy is to acquire Bitcoin or MicroStrategy (MSTR) below $70,000, aiming for a 3x return within a tax-free investment vehicle (ISA). This approach prioritizes buying during periods of market fear and maximum pain, rather than chasing peaks. He expects the Bitcoin halving in 2028 to introduce volatility, followed by a blow-off year in 2029. His personal circumstances (divorce) influence a more defensive, sidelined investment stance until asset division is resolved, reinforcing his focus on strategic low entry points.