The Trust Layer for Market Analysts

The analysis uses earnings and PE ratio to assess SPX500. Current earnings per share are $294, with a PE ratio of 22.8, resulting in an index value of 6703. Considers potential impacts during an economic downturn. Historically, consumer spending is reliant on the top 10% of US consumers, sustained by strong equity. An inverse wealth effect could decrease earnings. Historically an earnings drawdown averages 30% and can be as low as 40% in a recession. Historical PE contraction during a recession is about 30%. Factoring a 40% earnings decline and 40% contraction results in a projected SPX500 level to 2818. Three strategies are presented: dollar cost averaging, evaluation-based allocation, and market timing.