The Trust Layer for Market Analysts

The AVAXUSD Coinbase chart is under long-term correction, originating from its 2021 all-time high, marked by a five-wave decline. This extended correction, spanning over a year, indicates a prevailing bearish sentiment. Despite this, the asset is currently positioned within a significant support zone, specifically at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $12.53, and along the lower boundary line of its declining channel. While the immediate trend remains downward, the confluence of these support indicators suggests a potential pivot point. The analysis posits two primary scenarios: a continuation of the bearish trend, or a bullish reversal. The bullish scenario envisions an upward C-wave, potentially driving the price above $100, which aligns with Elliott Wave principles for a corrective bounce following an extended decline. However, a decisive break below the $12.50 support, particularly the $10.00 level, would invalidate this bullish outlook, confirming further downside. The market exhibits characteristics typical of a prolonged bear market, with an 80-85% correction from its peak. For a confirmed bullish reversal, the analysis emphasizes the necessity of observing a micro five-wave impulse move upward, followed by a three-wave pullback, indicating a shift in momentum. Until such a structure emerges, the overall market remains in a downtrend, making it a transitional period for potential long positions, though current market action doesn't yet confirm a high-quality setup.