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The analysis compares the current Bitcoin cycle (projected to 2026) with the 2018 bear market. In 2018, Bitcoin experienced a top in February, followed by a correction and a test of the 200-day moving average. This led to a lower low in June and a final capitulation with a 50% correction by the end of the year. The speaker suggests that if the current cycle mimics 2018, Bitcoin could continue to fall until Q4, similar to the 2018 pattern where a higher low was formed before a significant drop. The analysis implies a bearish outlook for Bitcoin, with a potential target around the 3500 level, referencing the 2018 low. The invalidation level (fail bound) is set above the current price, indicating that a move higher would negate the bearish thesis. The timeframe for this analysis is weekly.